Investing Broz Weekly Newsletter
21 April 2025
Written and edited SteveZ_Bro and Crux of Crypto with help from the Broz. None of the information in this document is or should be understood to be financial advice.
Broz Blueprint
EDITORIAL: GIVE ME A SIGN by SteveZ_Bro
DISCORD: Community, Blofin and Winning
ECONOMIC INSIGHTS: Economic events in the week ahead
BITCOIN WATCH, LuxAlgo : Bitcoin chart with LuxAlgo
ALT SEASON: Bitcoin Dominance
GIVE ME A SIGN!
Peaking at $109,500 in late January, it is fair to say that Bitcoin has been in a bear market for three months. Peak to bottom Bitcoin has seen -32% retracement from the January top. A number of technical indicators have emboldened the bears. Bitcoin bulls have had to watch and listen as Bitcoin first lost the 50 day moving average, then the weekly swing low level. Next Bitcoin lost the 23% retracement FIB level, and the 200 day moving average. A prominent “Doomberg” analyst has been repeatedly calling for $10,000 Bitcoin based on volatility and correlation to risk assets such as the QQQ index.
Over the last month, sentiment on Bitcoin has oscillated between fear and extreme fear. Many industry participants and supporters head into each week feeling like this the week we break down to the next level. Traders are in control and bears have the upper hand, with no sign of relief…..or have there been signs?
Believe it or not, YES there have been signs. Over the last month, Bitcoin has outperformed QQQ by +15%. Bitcoin has also out dueled the US10 year bond by +20%. Bitcoin has even been battering its fellow coins with dominance rising above 64%. These are signs of Bitcoin strength and helps tilt the balance in favor of Bitcoin being a risk off asset and bolsters the adoption narrative. Blackrock has said as much and Blackrock usually gets their way.
Charles Schwab Corp provides more signal with their recent announcement that they are preparing to enter the spot Bitcoin trading market. CEO Rick Wurster is indicating a potential launch as early as April 2026. Charles Schwab has recently seen a 400% surge in traffic to Schwab’s crypto-related web pages as clear evidence of investor interest in digital assets. A SIGN.
One by one, traditional players, investment banks, money managers, family offices and independent agents are coming to the realization that Bitcoin is not going away and deserves a position in an investment portfolio. The question is how much should be allocated and how fast? A 1 to 2% allocation is the likely starting point, and this will have a significant impact.
The global bond market is roughly $130 trillion, and global equities are around $100 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market cap is approximately $2 trillion. If portfolio managers collectively allocate 1 to 2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, this could represent a massive influx of capital into a relatively small market.
Suppose $50 trillion in assets under management (AUM) globally follows the 60/40 model (a conservative estimate). A 2% allocation to Bitcoin would mean $1 trillion in new demand. Even spread over time, this could drive Bitcoin’s price significantly higher due to its fixed supply (21 million BTC, with ~19.5 million currently in circulation).
Bitcoin’s price is highly sensitive to demand shocks because of its inelastic supply. Historical data suggests that large capital inflows (e.g., ETF approvals in 2024) have led to rapid price increases. Bitcoin’s price can rise 5–10% per $10 billion in sustained inflows, with diminishing returns as prices climb. For $1 trillion over a few years, the cumulative demand shock is ~50% of Bitcoin’s current market cap ($1 trillion ÷ $2 trillion). Applying a conservative elasticity of 0.75, the price could increase by ~37.5% (0.75 × 50%) from direct demand alone, excluding speculative effects.
Institutional adoption (Schwab) is a SIGN of legitimacy, attracting retail and speculative capital. Historical bull runs saw prices rise 5–10x on smaller inflows, suggesting a multiplier effect. Assume a 2x speculative multiplier on top of fundamental demand and you get quite a “price pop!”
A 2% Bitcoin allocation to the traditional 60/40 portfolios over the next few years could drive Bitcoin’s price to $275,000 with a range of $175,000–$450,000 depending on adoption speed, speculative fervor, and market conditions. This reflects ~$1 trillion in demand against a tightening supply, amplified by ETF inflows. The price path may be uneven, with spikes and corrections as liquidity adjusts. Hopefully, today is a step along the adoption path, and another SIGN.
DISCORD Blowfin Wins this week!
Congratulations Rufio and Sil8nt for a couple of great wins this week!
THIS WEEKS ECONOMIC DATA
MONDAY - US LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
The U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite index published monthly by The Conference Board. It is designed to forecast future economic activity, typically with a lead time of around seven months. The index comprises ten components that historically have turned down before recessions and turned up before recoveries.
TUESDAY- FED GOVERNORS HARKER, KASHARI, BARKIN SPEAK
Fed Governors speeches are notable events for investors to monitor. The retail sales data provides insights into consumer spending and economic health, while Powell's speech offers valuable information on monetary policy and the economic outlook, both of which can significantly impact market sentiment and investment decisions.
WEDNESDAY- FED BEIGE BOOK
The Fed's Beige Book provides investors with valuable qualitative insights into the current state of the U.S. economy at a regional and sectoral level. By offering real-time anecdotal evidence and potential early signals of economic shifts, it serves as a useful complement to quantitative data and helps investors better understand the economic backdrop influencing their investment decisions and the Federal Reserve's policy deliberations.
THURSDAY-EXISTING HOME SALES
The existing home sales report provides a comprehensive view of a crucial segment of the U.S. economy. By analyzing the data on sales volume, prices, and inventory, investors can gain valuable insights into economic trends, consumer behavior, and the overall health of the housing market, which can inform their investment strategies across various asset classes.
FRIDAY- CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer sentiment is a measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situations. It's 1 a crucial economic indicator because consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of a country's gross domestic product (GDP). When consumers are confident, 2 they tend to spend more, fueling economic growth. Conversely, when they are pessimistic, they tend to save more and spend less, which can lead to an economic slowdown
BITCOIN powered by LUXALGO!
Bitcoin has been signaling a bullish move on the LUXALGO oscillator for about a week. FINALLY, the bullish move has come. Bitcoin has pressed nearly to the top of the smart trail on the daily chart. Now we watch for continuation or more range bound action. 88k is the level to beat.
ALTCOIN SEASON
BTC.D hit 64% this week…again. BITCOIN is “strong as bull!” While some alt coins are seeing some relief, in general BITCOIN is still in charge. We have not seen anything in alt coins yet.
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